Charles Pattie and Ron
Johnston, "Still Talking, but Is Anyone Listening? The
Changing Face of Constituency Campaigning in Britain,
1997-2005," Party Politics, 15 (July, 2009),
411-434.
First paragraph:
Message and targeting are central to the postmodern election
campaign (Norris, 2000). Party managers try to control how
their party, its leaders, candidates and policies are
presented in the media. Election messages are carefully
targeted at particular strategically important groups of
voters. In Britain in the 1980s and early 1990s, for
instance, the Conservatives appealed to 'Essex man',
aspirational and newly affluent skilled workers in the
south-east of England. Similarly, before the 1997 election,
one of New Labour's campaign targets was 'Worcester woman',
an archetypal middleclass, middle England voter
disillusioned with the Conservatives but needing reassurance
that Labour was no longer the tax and spend party of
old.
- Figures and
Tables:
- Table 1. Changing
electoral contexts in Great Britain,
1997-2005
- Table 2. Stable
geographies of constituency campaigning in England and
Wales, 1997-2005: principal components
analysis
- Table 3. Accounting for
the geography of campaign spending, 1997, 2001 and 2005:
party strength
- Table 4. Marginality and
the geography of campaign spending, 1997-2005
- Table 5. Constituency
campaign effectiveness and vote share logits, 1997-2005 -
the impact of time: SUR regressions
- Table 6. Range of
predicted vote shares for different campaign spending
scenarios
- Table 7. Constituency
campaign effectiveness and electorate share logits,
1997-2005 - the impact of time: SUR
regressions
- Table 8. Range of
predicted electorate shares for different campaign
spending
First Paragraph of
Conclusion:
The above analyses therefore reveal significant long-term
stability in the geography of local campaigning by British
parties. Labour and the Liberal Democrats continue to
concentrate most on marginal seats, while the Conservatives
still split their efforts more evenly between their safe
seats and their marginals. Incumbent governments, meanwhile,
concentrate campaign efforts more on marginals they
currently hold and need to defend (as the Conservatives did
in 1997 and Labour in 2001 and 2005), while opposition
parties tend to focus more on marginals where they are the
main challengers (as Labour did in 1997, and the
Conservatives have done since).
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