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Carlos García-Rivero, "Race, Class and Underlying Trends in Party Support in South Africa," Party Politics, 12 (January, 2006), 57-75.

First Paragraph:
In 1994, South Africa held its first multi-racial general elections and brought an end to Apartheid, a system that granted political rights subject to racial origin. During the transition period, euphoria ran throughout the country, in the hope that political equality would inexorably lead to economic and social equality. From an international perspective, the transition to democracy in South Africa was part of the so-called Third Wave (Huntington, 1991) of democracy, comparable to events in regions such as southern Europe, Latin America or Central and Eastern Europe. As all these countries had enjoyed a successful transition to democracy, it was expected that South Africa would also travel down the same road.

Figures and Tables:
Figure 1. Party identification and intention to vote in South Africa, 1994-2000
Table 1. Party support in South Africa by party, 1994-2000
Table 2. Logistic regression of affective closeness to the ANC (1994-2000)
Table 3. Logistic regression of affective closeness to the NNP (1994-2000)

Last Paragraph:
Thus, because of the nature of its party system, the question of whether class will eventually overtake race as the main factor influencing voting is of considerable importance in South Africa. Should it occur, internal debate within the ANC is expected to develop over the issue of whether it is the impoverished black masses or the new black middle class or elite who should constitute the principal social groups to be represented by the ANC. If it is the former, as may be expected, the latter will demand political representation for their new status quo and new political organizations may even develop from within the ANC, with likely consequences for internal stability and the party system in South Africa. All this may depend on whether or not political parties - especially the ANC - continue to wield such a great influence over voters during the elections; whether or not the ANC continues to be guided by rigid organizational centralism; and, most importantly of all, whether or not there is a growing acceptance among voters that the multi-racial credentials of the opposition parties are indeed authentic.