Elisabeth Bakke and Nick
Sitter, "Patterns of Stability: Party Competition and
Strategy in Central Europe since 1989," Party
Politics, 11 (March, 2005), 243-263.
First Paragraph:
Four or five competitive multiparty elections have yielded
different patterns of party system stability in the
Visegrád four: Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic
and Slovakia. Whereas the Czech and Hungarian party systems
are made up almost exclusively of long-standing parties, the
Polish party system has seen stability only on the
post-regime side of the spectrum and the Slovak party system
has seen turnover in parties on both sides of the main
national-populist-civic-democratic divide, albeit with a
stable core. Nevertheless, the region as a whole has proved
to be more stable than many commentators and analysts
expected in the early 1990s.
Figures and Tables:
Table 1. Major parliamentary parties
Table 2. Party system (in)stability in Central Europe
Table 3. Volatility in Central Europe
Table 4. Electoral systems in Central Europe (2002)
Figure 1. Wasted votes in Central Europe
Figure 2. Left parties in the Visegrád four
Appendix 1. Effective parties in Central Europe: electoral
and parliamentary
First paragraph of Conclusion:
Comparative analysis of the four cases reveals that
these different patterns of stabilization have been driven
largely by strategic choices made by parties, in terms of
what their goals are and how these are best pursued. To be
sure, the higher number of parties in Poland and Slovakia at
an early stage prompted more proportional electoral systems,
which may have reinforced fragmentation. However, the
reformed communists in Slovakia also proved far less adept
than their Hungarian or Polish counterparts, let alone the
Czech Social Democrats, at defining a clear role for
themselves or pursuing enduring alliances. On the
centre-right, ODS and (after 1995) Fidesz established
themselves as the anchors of one side of the party system,
albeit adopting different (respectively liberal and more
national clerical) strategies. Both parties featured strong
leaders that proved capable of taking advantage of their
non-socialist competitors' suboptimal strategic choices or
divisions. Neither the liberal nor the national clerical
successor wings of Solidarity achieved this kind of unity or
clear sustained strategies for competition (let alone clear
economic policy priorities). Yet the former regime parties
acted as an anchor in Polish party competition. In the
Slovak case, the struggle against Meciar and his
majoritarian democracy eclipsed other bloc-building
strategies. A range of opposition parties that were
otherwise divided on strategy could nevertheless agree on
the single goal of ousting his government, thus yielding a
contingent opposition that is reminiscent of the old
anti-communist opposition movements in its diversity. Only
after the resolution of the Meciar question does it look as
if more stable left-right competition may be emerging; a
development that is in line with findings from Western
Europe that left-right coalition competition does not
develop until regime questions have been solved (Budge and
Keman, 1990). In short, party strategy matters: it shapes
the trajectories of, variations in and degrees of party
system stabilization.
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